Fort Bragg, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

828
FXUS66 KEKA 082156
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
256 PM PDT Tue Oct 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Mainly sunny skies with some night and morning coastal
fog is expected to continue through Thursday. Increasing clouds
and a chance for rain is expected Friday afternoon through
Saturday. Dry weather is expected to return Sunday and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure is starting to get squashed down as
an upper level trough approaches the Pacific Northwest today and
moves inland on Wednesday. This is keep temperatures slightly
cooler today. Additional cooling is expected on Wednesday with
highs mainly staying in the 80s. This may bring additional low
clouds and fog to the coastal areas tonight. Thursday may see a
brief rebound in temperatures with some shortwave ridging building
back over the area. Stratus is again expected to be limited.

Thursday night and Friday a cutoff upper level is expected to
approach the area from the west. It looks like there will be some
rain, but with an upper level low the predictability is typically
low and this is shown by the NBM percentile data. This will
depend on the exact track of the low. The NBM probabilities
show a wide range of possible solutions. The 75th percentile
shows a maximum of over 2.5 inches in the King Range while the
25th percentile shows no rain at all for the area. Generally it
looks like the heaviest rain will be in southern Humboldt and
northern Mendocino counties. This will need to be monitored as it
gets closer.

Sunday high pressure builds in and dry weather is expected again.
This is expected to last into early Monday. Late Monday and
Tuesday there is the potential for more rain. MKK

&&

.AVIATION...Very dense fog impacted some coastal airfields early
this morning followed by primarily VFR conditions across northwest
California into the the afternoon. Stratus is predicted to bring a
return of low ceilings and visibilities to coastal airfields this
evening. Although HREF does show significant spread in visibilities
tonight (and thus higher uncertainty), the overall trend shows
visibilities deteriorating at KCEC after sunset with improving
conditions early Wednesday morning. There are indications that KACV
will have more varied conditions overnight. Ceilings and
visibilities should improve to VFR on Wednesday with breezy north
winds along the coast by the afternoon. KUKI is forecast remain
primarily VFR through the TAF period. /KMZ

&&

.MARINE...Moderate to fresh northerly winds will persist across the
coastal waters tonight. Building surface high pressure will pinch
the pressure gradient causing fresh north winds to become more
widespread on Wednesday. As a result a small craft advisory was
issued for the northern outer waters, in addition to the ongoing
advisories in the southern waters, for Wednesday afternoon through
Thursday. Steep waves will build in response to these winds and
approach 10 feet, especially across the outer waters. Conditions
will begin to improve Thursday afternoon as north winds decrease.
The next shift will come over the weekend as south winds develop
with the approach of a rain-producing low pressure system. As of
now, marine conditions look to remain below critical wind and wave
thresholds. Meanwhile, a moderate nw swell and a long period sw swell
system will continue to impact the waters through the weekend.
/KMZ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Cooler temperatures higher afternoon RH are
expected on Wednesday. Winds will remain light and mainly terrain
driven away from the coast. Some afternoon gusts to 20 mph are
possible over the higher terrain. Confidence in the potential rain
Friday afternoon through Saturday remains low. A wetting rain
looks the most likely on the Mendocino coast where the NBM is
showing a 60 percent chance while most of the rest of the area is
only showing a 50 percent chance or less. This is over the 24 hour
period from 5pm Friday through 5pm Saturday. MKK.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ455-475.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Wednesday to 3 PM PDT
     Thursday for PZZ470.

&&

$$

Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka
https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka

For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png